Wednesday, August 28, 2013

OD Nats 2013 Aug 29 Weather

Looking like another reasonable day to try for XC. Expect later afternoon and early evening TS to form like today (very impressive over Nebo at sunset!). Here's the NWS discussion.

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah 
847 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 28 2013 


Synopsis...somewhat drier air will move into the intermountain 
west tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds over the 
region. Deeper moisture is expected to move into southern Utah 
beginning Friday...then into northern Utah for the beginning of 
next week. 

&& 

Discussion...a fairly moist boundary layer remains in place 
across the forecast area this evening as evidenced by the 00z 
kslc sounding...surface dew points in the 50s across most valley 
locations...and GOES derived precipitable water values at or above 0.75 inches. 
However...much drier air aloft which is also evident in the 00z 
sounding has advected across the forecast area from the 
southwest...and this drier air greatly limited the coverage and 
intensity of convection this afternoon. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms continue this evening...but should diminish over the 
next couple of hours with the loss of daytime heating. 


A middle level ridge extending into the central rockies is forecast 
to strengthen a bit on Thursday...which will likely continue to 
inhibit much more than diurnally driven terrain based convection. 
This ridge axis looks to extend along the Utah/Arizona border Friday 
through the weekend. Deeper moisture may work its way back into 
the southwest during this time...however convection across the 
remainder of the area will likely remain limited. This moisture is 
expected to spread back north by early next week. 

Updated earlier to trim probability of precipitation over the south...and will plan to 
update again and remove evening wording once convection 
diminishes. 

&& 

Expect winds to be single digits up to 10,000 ft from the SW, with winds at 14k around 12-14 mph. This makes for a good XC conditions for routes into SW Wyoming. Hopefully we won't see over development in the higher terrain until late in the day.

More at the official wx brief.

-CG


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