Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
847 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 28 2013
Synopsis...somewhat drier air will move into the intermountain
west tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds over the
region. Deeper moisture is expected to move into southern Utah
beginning Friday...then into northern Utah for the beginning of
next week.
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Discussion...a fairly moist boundary layer remains in place
across the forecast area this evening as evidenced by the 00z
kslc sounding...surface dew points in the 50s across most valley
locations...and GOES derived precipitable water values at or above 0.75 inches.
However...much drier air aloft which is also evident in the 00z
sounding has advected across the forecast area from the
southwest...and this drier air greatly limited the coverage and
intensity of convection this afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms continue this evening...but should diminish over the
next couple of hours with the loss of daytime heating.
A middle level ridge extending into the central rockies is forecast
to strengthen a bit on Thursday...which will likely continue to
inhibit much more than diurnally driven terrain based convection.
This ridge axis looks to extend along the Utah/Arizona border Friday
through the weekend. Deeper moisture may work its way back into
the southwest during this time...however convection across the
remainder of the area will likely remain limited. This moisture is
expected to spread back north by early next week.
Updated earlier to trim probability of precipitation over the south...and will plan to
update again and remove evening wording once convection
diminishes.
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Expect winds to be single digits up to 10,000 ft from the SW, with winds at 14k around 12-14 mph. This makes for a good XC conditions for routes into SW Wyoming. Hopefully we won't see over development in the higher terrain until late in the day.
More at the official wx brief.
-CG
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